Winter 2023 Precipitation Prediction

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a 30% chance of above normal precipitation this winter. If we can assume a correlation between precipitation and snowfall, we could expect a snowfall that is close to normal*. Snowpack varies greatly from year to year. Based on a twenty year history, the average snowpack at the Blue Mesa Subdivision is around twenty inches with the maximum typically occuring in February or March. Last winter's snowpach was unusualy high with close to forty inches of snowpack.

The charts below, provided by NOAA on November 16, predict near normal precipitation and temperature this winter.

* Note that according to NOAA "snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance")